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Why Indictments Help Trump and Threaten Republicans

The Trump camp that sensed the opening of the station Began to turn the imminent indictment They either defend the former president or are labeled left-wing sympathizers.

Even Trump’s Republican detractors have started to see what’s written on the walls.

“He’s a new person President of TeflonMichael Brodkolb, former vice chairman of the Minnesota Republican Party and a longtime Trump critic, said: “He’s always been a victim, someone who has built an entire political empire on the basis of being a martyr, and this is just another example.”

In the Trump era, Trump has tried to turn scandal after scandal that seemed ineligible to his advantage. Sometimes he succeeds (the Access Hollywood tape wasn’t the dagger everyone expected), sometimes he struggles (the aftermath of the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot was mostly remain unfriendly). In both cases he survived.

The expected upcoming indictment will test it again. The timing hasn’t been very good for him so far, though. will be Several prominent Republicans, including Ron DeSantis, are considering starting their own campaigns.

Bruce Cherry, chairman of Florida’s Seminole County Republican Executive Committee, said, “It seems very clear that the left is trying to do everything it can to discredit former President Donald Trump. “The best ticket this country could have” would be Mr Trump — as his running mate, alongside DeSantis as a presidential candidate. “I don’t think the indictment means anything.”

If anything, Republicans believe Trump will benefit from a rush of short-term aid, much like Trump did following last year’s seizure of documents from the Mar-a-Lago estate. It may not show up in national polls — independent and Democratic voters will remind Trump of the drama and scandal that seems to last forever. One Republican national strategist who has been granted a grant said the former president is likely to enjoy an immediate funding boost in an otherwise unfriendly political environment.

“Small donors are declining,” the person said. “It will motivate them. It’s evidence of a witch hunt going on.”

in the right wing social media channels Over the weekend, some Trump supporters debated the merits of violent vs. non-violent protests, ruminating on trucker strikes and bank runs, while embracing the Deep State “trap.” Some warned about Unlike the legal issues Trump faces in Fulton County, Georgia, a special counsel investigation will take place around Jan. 20. The June 6 New York case comes from the district attorney in Manhattan, which many Republicans see as the epicenter of left-wing excesses.

“In this case, I think Republicans will rally around Trump initially,” said longtime Republican pollster Whit Ayers. “The long term depends on how this case and other criminal investigations play out.”

Ayers said if Trump were to face multiple indictments, at least voters in primaries open to other Republican presidential candidates would say he has too much “baggage.” But he warned that no one could fully understand how it would play out.

“I have never studied the indictments of former presidents and major presidential candidates,” Ayers said, adding, “I have never done a poll on the indictments of former presidents and major presidential candidates.”

One of the nagging concerns of some Trump critics is that the case against him may prove to be weak, and defeating it may give him even more courage.Former Congressman Michigan State Republican Peter Meyer lost the primary after voting to impeach Trump over his role in last January’s presidential election. 6 Riot said, “Bullshit Democratic Crusade will help Trump in the primaries and, if he wins, help the Democrats by making the Republican’s weakest candidate general.”

Trump’s 2024’s hottest GOP critics, Pence declined to twist a knife on Saturday. I am confident that President Trump can take care of himself. “

Privately, however, Pence’s allies argue that Trump is likely to face more indictments in connection with his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

“He’s trying to walk a pretty narrow fence line,” former Indiana Republican Rep. Mike Murphy, close to Pence, said of the former vice president’s comments. “He’s trying to keep his distance from Trump. But he also knows that if this happens on Tuesday, the Republican constituency will go insane, and he has to become empathetic to their concerns without empathizing with Trump. With the potential for more serious prosecution is Atlanta, who will make it clear that what is right is right and what is wrong is wrong.”

Trump “Protest and Take Back Our Country!” and will hold a rally in Waco, Texas on the first Saturday of the 2024 campaign If the protests don’t materialize, or the crowd size is modest, “it will show that the Trump movement is in turmoil,” said a longtime Republican who was granted anonymity to discuss the dynamics of the 2024 campaign. strategist said.

Also, after Trump’s defeat and disappointing midterm elections in 2020, electability-obsessed Republicans may view Trump’s indictments as untenable in the general election.

Dick Wadhams, former chairman of the Colorado Republican Party and longtime party strategist, said, “At some point, some of his supporters believed that the stack of these legislative actions would directly affect their ability to win the general election. “Perhaps we may start to sink in the fact that he will be diverted by these legal actions throughout the campaign.”

But the biggest concern for some Republicans is that the indictment could really hurt Trump and the Republican Party in 2020 when they have to win back independents and moderate Republicans who fled the party. is. An image of an indicted ex-president or protester that could serve as a painful reminder of his time in office.

Republican strategist Mike Madley, co-founder of the Anti-Trump Lincoln Project, said, “I helped him in the Republican primary, but he was going to win the Republican primary anyway.

The problem for Republicans, he said, is that even if the indictment further bolsters Trump’s support, it won’t do them any good in the general election.

“The intensity of base reduction is not a sign that the movement is growing,” Madrid said. “This is a sign that the dwarf is about to collapse.”

Natalie Allison contributed to this report.

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